Even as much of the U.S. moves on to the next phase of reopening, the commercial real estate industry continues to grapple with the implications of COVID-19.

From a public health standpoint, the worst is hopefully behind us, but the pandemic's economic repercussions are still taking shape.

To help you navigate these uncertain times, Reva is back with another recap of the latest news on commercial real estate and COVID-19. Here are her top picks from the past two weeks, along with some sector-specific resources that can help keep you informed.

CRE at large

Commercial Property Executive: Commercial real estate values saw a modest decline in Q1 2020, but researchers at UBS believe things will get worse before they get better. Forecasting a long road to recovery, the investment bank's latest Real Estate Outlook cites a 0.4% dip in the NCREIF-ODCE Fund Index, its first drop since the 2007-2008 financial crisis. While the office, industrial, and apartment sectors mostly "maintained a status quo" in Q1, early Q2 figures suggest occupancies and rent growth are beginning to falter.

New York Times: Real estate investment firms are amassing huge sums of equity—to the tune of $300 billion—in hopes they can take advantage of property discounts brought on by the pandemic. Is there enough opportunity to go around? If the last recession is any indication, maybe not. But with 17% of CMBS borrowers requesting debt relief as of April, this time might be different.

Commercial Observer: Landlords are mobilizing against California's Senate Bill 939, which would allow small businesses impacted by coronavirus to renegotiate their leases and—if no "mutually satisfactory agreement" can be reached in 30 days—to break those leases without penalty. The bill would only apply to private businesses that have lost at least 40% of their revenue or are operating with capacity limits due to COVID-19. But despite these limitations, landlord advocates argue that SB939 could pave the way for a "financial collapse."

Broker Resources

CBRE — COVID-19 Resource Center
C&W — COVID-19 Recovery Readiness
JLL — Coronavirus (COVID-19) Resources for Real Estate
NAR — Coronavirus Guidance for Commercial Real Estate

Other CRE Resources

CCIM Institute — Coronavirus (COVID-19) Resources and Guidance
NAREIT — Coronavirus Market Commentary
ULI — COVID-19 Industry Insights

Multifamily

NMHC: The third installment in a series of NMHC surveys highlights COVID-19's continued impact on multifamily construction. 53% of respondents are currently experiencing construction delays, but only 37% attribute those delays to the presence of a construction moratorium. The percentage of respondents reporting a lack of materials (29%) or increased material prices (17%) is on the rise, while the fraction of respondents constrained by labor availability (25%) appears to be shrinking.

Joint Center for Housing Studies: Research from Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies suggests that COVID-19 will put more financial stress on renters living in small buildings—and by extension, on their landlords—than on those living in larger communities. The JCHS data shows that households with at-risk wages account for 29% of small multifamily rentals (2-4 units), but represent only 18% of renters at communities with 50+ units.

Multi-Housing News: Coronavirus has multifamily architects rethinking all aspects of building design, including interior finishes. With residents spending more time living and working at home, features like dedicated office nooks and spacious private balconies are expected to command even higher rent premiums. Architects are also taking note of the surge in demand for food storage, which—if the trend continues post-coronavirus—could lead to larger freezers and refrigerators.

Multifamily Resources

NMHC — Coronavirus (COVID-19) Hub
NAA — Coronavirus Resources and Guidance
Fannie Mae — Multifamily COVID-19 Support
Freddie Mac — Multifamily Business COVID-19 Updates

Retail

GlobeSt: Are businesses liable if someone catches COVID-19 on their premises? The jury's still out, but companies can minimize their legal exposure by adhering to guidelines from the CDC, OSHA, local health departments, and trade organizations. Businesses also need to make sure employees actively enforce these safety measures—for example, by requiring customers to wear masks—lest they open themselves up to a lawsuit.

CNBC: American malls are highly dependent on a small group of retailers, many of whom are struggling to survive the pandemic. A recent analysis from CoStar shows that 14 of the 20 largest mall tenants are either apparel or department store chains, and together, these brands make up nearly a quarter of U.S. mall space. J.C. Penney, which filed for bankruptcy earlier this month, is #2 on CoStar's list, occupying 6% of existing mall square footage.

New York Times: After two months of lockdown, New York City's commercial tenants are behind on their rent payments, and not surprisingly, the retail sector seems hardest hit. Vornado Realty Trust reports that roughly 80% of its retail tenants and 40% of its office tenants missed rent payments at the start of April and May. While the REIT was able to collect 90% of April office rents by the end of the month, retail rents remained elusive, with just 53% collected.

Retail Resources

ICSC — COVID-19 Information & Resources Center

Office & Industrial

Wall Street Journal: As lockdowns are lifted across the country, not everyone is eager to get back to the office. Some employees are happier working from home, and management is beginning to key in on the benefits. According to survey data collected by Upwork, 91% of hiring managers feel their organization's remote workforce has functioned as well or better than expected, thanks in part to the elimination of lengthy commutes and superfluous meetings.

CNBC: Tech companies are embracing the shift to remote work, and Google is (quite literally) putting its money where its mouth is. Employees that work from home will be reimbursed for up to $1,000 worth of equipment, though some will begin rotating into the office as early as July 6th.

Boston Globe: With office tenants reopening for business, real estate companies are looking to technology for help staving off COVID-19. New York-based RXR Realty plans to leverage a variety of tech solutions, including remote temperature screening systems, face mask-detecting cameras, and touchless elevators controlled via smartphone app. While well-intentioned, the new measures already have their skeptics—some worried about efficacy, and others, about employee privacy.

Logistics Management: A new report from CBRE estimates that supply chain restructuring due to COVID-19 could create demand for an additional 400-500 million square feet of industrial space. Business inventories are projected to rise by roughly 5%, reversing a decades-long decline in inventory-to-sales ratios. With U.S. companies looking to re-shore production and build out their domestic supply chains, CBRE believes inland distribution hubs are especially well positioned to service this new demand.

Office & Industrial Resources

NAIOP — CRE Response to COVID-19