As states begin to relax restrictions on business activity, U.S. commercial real estate may soon get its first glimpse of the post-coronavirus "new normal."

But concern over a potential resurgence of COVID-19 cases, coupled with the fact that an effective vaccine is still months away, has industry experts wondering when—or if—the pandemic's effects on commercial real estate will finally dissipate.

To help you navigate these uncertain times, Reva has once again scoured the web for must-read stories on commercial real estate and COVID-19. Here are her top picks from last week.

CRE at large

Wall Street Journal: The fixed-payment, long-term lease is coming under fire, and COVID-19 is to blame. Struggling to pay rent as a result of the pandemic, tenants are increasingly interested in more flexible solutions like revenue sharing and short-term leases. While logistical hurdles and lender preferences still stand in the way of their widespread adoption, some brokers insist that it’s only a matter of time.

CBRE: Which markets will bear the brunt of COVID-19's impact, and which will come away unscathed? CBRE Labor Analytics is taking a quantitative approach to the question by identifying the sectors most (and least) likely to be disrupted by coronavirus, and mapping their concentration in job markets across the country. According to CBRE's analysis, Las Vegas and Orlando are in for some tough times, while markets like Washington, D.C. may prove themselves resilient.

Crain's Chicago Business: Sam Zell, nicknamed the "Grave Dancer" for his many investments in distressed real estate, thinks it's too early to start dancing in the wake of COVID-19. The billionaire real estate mogul believes some measure of social distancing could persist for years, spelling trouble for the retail and hospitality sectors and making a V-shaped recovery unlikely.

Broker Resources

CBRE — COVID-19 Resource Center
C&W — COVID-19 Recovery Readiness
JLL — Coronavirus (COVID-19) Resources for Real Estate
NAR — Coronavirus Guidance for Commercial Real Estate

Other CRE Resources

CCIM Institute — Coronavirus (COVID-19) Resources and Guidance
NAREIT — Coronavirus Market Commentary
ULI — COVID-19 Industry Insights

Multifamily

Forbes: NMHC continues to release data from its Rent Payment Tracker, which showed that 80.2% of U.S. apartment households had made a rent payment as of May 6th. The latest figure represents a slight improvement over the prior month (78.0%) and only a small dip relative to the same period in May 2019 (81.7%). But because the data makes no distinction between full and partial payments, the full scope of COVID-19's impact remains somewhat unclear.

NAA: With leasing velocity at a standstill due to COVID-19, multifamily operators are doing all they can to retain existing residents. Zero-increase renewals and short-term extensions are quickly becoming the norm, and some operators—like the Florida-based Bainbridge Companies—are reporting renewal rates as high as 80%.

Bisnow: Trade associations like the NMHC and NAA continue to push for legislation in an effort to stabilize the multifamily industry. Creation of a $100 billion rent relief fund remains a top priority, along with expansion of the Paycheck Protection Program to include multifamily owners and developers. Industry leaders are also seeking a 60-day extension of the CARES Act's mortgage forbearance provisions, as well as a federal backstop for insurance losses related to the pandemic.

Multifamily Resources

NMHC — Coronavirus (COVID-19) Hub
NAA — Coronavirus Resources and Guidance
Fannie Mae — Multifamily COVID-19 Support
Freddie Mac — Multifamily Business COVID-19 Updates

Retail

NBC News: With major retail chains like Gap, Staples, and Subway suspending rent payments, experts are starting to worry about potential knock-on effects for commercial real estate lenders. CBRE estimates retail landlords collected only 20-40% of rents owed in April, a multibillion-dollar loss that may ultimately get passed on to banks. Credit rating agencies are already beginning to downgrade lenders with significant commercial real estate exposure, many of whom have dramatically increased their loan-loss allowances.

The Real Deal: Almost two years after completing its acquisition of mall owner GGP, Brookfield is making another big bet on retail—coronavirus be damned. As part of its newly announced retail revitalization program, the real estate heavyweight will invest $5 billion in retail companies hit hard by the pandemic, in hopes that the additional liquidity will help them get back on their feet.

Supermarket News: A recent study by Nielsen offers retailers a helpful lens through which to view the post-coronavirus landscape. While Nielsen identifies three possible timelines for the nation's recovery, all three will see two new classes of consumers emerge: those who are mostly insulated from the pandemic's day-to-day economic impact, and those who face severe financial constraints as a result of unemployment or other COVID-19-related hardships.

Retail Resources

ICSC — COVID-19 Information & Resources Center

Office & Industrial

Bisnow: When will office occupancies bounce back from COVID-19? Depending on who you ask, maybe never. Knotel CEO Amol Sarva thinks the transition to remote work will leave occupancies hovering at just 60%, but industry leaders have yet to reach a consensus regarding the pandemic’s long-term impact. A recent CoreNet Global survey of corporate real estate professionals suggests Sarva may be right, with 69% of companies planning to downsize their office footprint.

New York Times: While service businesses eagerly await the nation's "reopening," white-collar companies are in little rush to bring employees back to the office. Facebook and Google are letting employees stay home through the end of the year; others, like Nationwide Insurance, are taking more aggressive measures. The Ohio-based insurer will permanently transition 4,000 employees to remote work, shuttering the five regional headquarters where they once officed.

Commercial Observer: A group of WeWork customers thinks it's unfair they're being charged membership fees when local restrictions prevent them from using the co-working space. Now, they're enlisting a New York law firm to help make their case.

Logistics Management: Walter Kemmsies, Chief Strategist at JLL and expert in all things logistics, shares his take on COVID-19's impications for industrial real estate. The short version? Supply chain issues introduced by the pandemic, including a shift away from suppliers in China, will necessitate more "safety stock" inventory—and larger warehouse footprints in which to store it.

Office & Industrial Resources

NAIOP — CRE Response to COVID-19